Market Analysis By FXOpen
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The price of the S&P 500 set a historical record amid news from the Fed
On March 14, we wrote: “The US500 stock index market is showing signs of positivity, indicating that an attempt to overcome the resistance of 5,200 points with a new record high may be made in the near future.” Yesterday's event created the momentum that allowed the bulls to do this.
On Wednesday evening it became known that it was decided to keep the interest rate at 5.5% in the US — this was expected. What market participants paid more attention to was the dovish tone of the Fed. Thus, it became known that by the end of 2024 there may be 3 consecutive rate cuts.
According to Jerome Powell:
→ recent inflation data turned out to be hotter than expected;
→ however, “in fact, the overall story has not changed, it is a gradual decline in inflation along a somewhat bumpy road.”Thus, fears associated with a longer period of tight monetary policy have been dispelled. As a result, the US dollar fell in price against a number of currencies, and the US stock market index S&P 500 soared to a new historical high around the level of 5,250.
Technical analysis of the US500 chart today shows that:
→ the market continues its upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ the price is in the upper half of the channel – a sign of increased demand.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
USD/CHF Analysis: SNB Decision Breaks Multi-month Trend
According to Reuters, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the appreciation of the franc creates problems for exporters. Thus, indicating intentions to weaken the CHF.
His words in January seem to be in line with how events are developing — the franc has weakened against the US dollar by more than 6% since the start of the year.
Moreover, today, quite unexpectedly, the Swiss National Bank decided to lower the interest rate: actual = 1.50%, forecast = 1.75%, previous value = 1.75%.
The result of the decision today was a sharp weakening of the franc against other currencies, including the US dollar.
Technical analysis of the USD/CHF chart today shows that the bulls are breaking the downward trend (shown by the red channel), which dates back to the fall of 2022. Wherein:
→ the price of USD/CHF may continue to develop within the channel shown by the blue lines, including a rollback from the 4-month high;
→ in case of a rollback, the level of 0.8888 may constitute support (as a former resistance) - just like the lower blue line.If the weakening of the franc, which is facilitated by the SNB, continues, the price of USD/CHF may reach the level of 0.9095 - near which the market has repeatedly formed reversals.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The Yen and European Currencies Strengthen after the Fed Meeting
Yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve disappointed dollar buyers. The rate remained at the same level as expected (5.25–5.50%). However, according to the updated FOMC forecast, it will be reduced three times this year by 0.25%, in contrast to four in the December forecast. The 2025 forecast also shows fewer expectations for rate cuts, just three. Naturally, investors' disappointment with this turn of events resulted in sales of the American currency in almost all directions. Thus, the US dollar/yen currency pair rebounded from recent highs at 151.80 and is currently trading below 151.00, the pound/US dollar retested 1.2800, and euro/US dollar buyers managed to strengthen the pair above 1.0900.
GBP/USD
Weak data on inflation and producer price index in the UK for February, published yesterday, led to the price falling below 1.2680, but by the evening, pound buyers managed to win back losses and test 1.2800. At the same time, today the pair faces an equally important day, rich in foundations.A meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled at 15:00 GMT+3, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be made. Analysts assume that the rate will remain at the same level (5.25%). What is important for market participants will be the number of votes of committee members for a rate reduction this year. If the number of officials who believe that the rate should be reduced at the next BoE meetings is more than one, the pound/US dollar pair may decline to 1.2700-1.2600. Otherwise, the price growth on the GBP/USD chart may resume in the direction of 1.3000-1.2900.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal More Losses
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6575 and 0.6550 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.6000 zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
· The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level against the US Dollar.· There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6570 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
· NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6105 resistance zone.
· There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.6040 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6635 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6600 support against the US Dollar.The pair even settled below 0.6575 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6504 swing low to the 0.6634 high. Moreover, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6570.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
AAPL Share Price Falls More Than 4% after Antitrust Lawsuit
Yesterday, the Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, alleging that the company has established a monopoly with the iPhone, which has harmed consumers, developers and competitors.
“Each step in Apple's course of conduct built and reinforced the moat around its smartphone monopoly,” the government said in the 88-page lawsuit.
The result of news of the lawsuit was a sharp decline in Apple's share price by more than 4%. This is a serious blow to stocks that are already underperforming the broader market. As confirmation, we note that yesterday, the ratio of the S&P 500 index to the AAPL share price set a maximum since November 2021.
The chart for AAPL stock shows an increasingly bearish picture:
→ The pace of the strong bull run (shown in the blue channel) of 2023 remains in the past, forming an A top near the USD 195 per share level of AAPL.
→ The price tested this level, forming top B.
→ Thus, the level of USD 195 works as an important resistance, around which a double top A-B pattern has formed (subjectively, it can be regarded as a triple, taking into account the high of January 24.
→ Price action increasingly defines the contours of the downward channel (shown in red).
→ While developing within this channel, the price has already dropped below the uptrend line (shown in green).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
GBP/USD Price Falls to 1.26 after Bank of England Decision
Yesterday, the GBP/USD market experienced a day of intense volatility due to a number of news items. According to Trading Economics:
→ UK retail sales were flat last month after a strong rise of 3.6% in January, contrasting with market expectations of a 0.3% decline.
→ The Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged. However, its head Andrew Bailey hinted at a potential reduction in interest rates. He noted positive indicators of lower inflation but stressed the need for greater confidence in managing price pressures.
Thus, a clearer prospect of easing monetary policy in the UK (which, however, is relevant for many countries) has become a driver for the weakening of the British pound.
The GBP/USD chart today shows that:
→ The price fell below USD 1.26, forming a March low;
→ The USD 1.28 level looks like an important resistance — at the beginning of the year a head-and-shoulders pattern formed there, after which in March there was an unsuccessful bullish breakout of this formation and a test of the USD 1.28 level.
→ The contours of the downward channel become more obvious on the chart (shown in red).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Bitcoin Price Recovered over the Weekend, But Market Anxiety Remains
From the point of view of technical analysis of BTC/USD, on Friday evening the price of Bitcoin was near the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue). This was alarming as it indicated that the market action could result in a weekly bearish candle forming with the price of BTC down by around 5% — something that hasn't happened since August of last year.
However, this did not happen, as the price recovered over the weekend, forming rebounds from the lower border of the channel. The lower shadows of the candles are a sign of demand forces. Moreover, the bulls have broken through the downward trend line (shown in black). Will the bulls be able to return the price of Bitcoin to an upward trajectory within the specified trend?
Doubts remain.
→ Bitcoin “still looks overbought,” JPMorgan strategists warned, predicting a decline to USD 42k.
→ Bloomberg writes about record capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs last week.
→ The level of 70k looks like an important psychological resistance. Above it, the Bitcoin price formed a double top pattern with an all-time high at point A, after which the bears clearly became more active. They successfully pushed the price to minimum B, breaking the support of the channel median line.The price of Bitcoin starts the new week around the 50% retracement from the decline A→B (about -16%). This gives reason to assume the development of consolidation.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Big in Japan: Several Years of Failed Stimulus Ends, But Stocks Go Up!
Japan's notoriously conservative approach to business practices combined with a world renowned reputation for engineering excellence has been a winning combination for the island nation for over 60 years.
A relatively small country was able to successfully market a range of products in many sectors ranging from electronic goods to automobiles to a worldwide audience to the extent that Japanese corporations are now global giants with head offices in various countries across the world and the names of these corporations household names in all continents.
An incredible attention to detail, highly educated population and unfaltering work ethic transformed Japan into the ultra-sophisticated nation that it is today, however perhaps surprisingly this commercial dominance has not always equaled a world-beating national economy.
Over recent years, the Japanese Yen has been subject to various periods of volatility, and Japanese stocks, once the absolute pinnacle of economic success during the 'Yuppie Years' of the 1980s when there was no internet and heavy manufacturing companies and property development giants were the largest companies in the world.
Since the rise of the Silicon Valley tech giants, all of which are a creation of the Internet revolution, however, Japan's indices have been far less of a talking point among traders and investors of the stocks of large companies as the absolute dominance of the 'Magnificent 7' and the halo effect they have created around other internet-based companies, software firms and e-commerce tours de force has changed the entire focus from traditional bricks and mortar companies toward those whose products are in the ether.
Japan's economic policy has trodden a different course to that of North America and Europe of late, too. Japanese central bankers had attempted to stimulate spending by maintaining a negative interest rate, to no avail. This came to an end last week, when the Japanese interest rate was increased to zero, representing the first interest rate rise in 17 years, and still nobody pays interest.
Giving up on stimulating a slumbering economy has had an interesting effect, however. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index, which tracks the best performing and most prestigious stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, has been trading at high levels to the extent that it is the top moving index on FXOpen today, trading at 40.399 points as of 8.17 am UK time according to FXOpen market data.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidation ahead of US News
This morning, news about inflation in Japan was published. It did not bring any surprises — inflation in Japan is gradually weakening as expected. Core CPI in annual terms: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.6%, a year ago = 3.0%.
We also note that the official position is aimed at preventing further weakening of the yen, as the USD/JPY price has risen more than 7% since the beginning of 2024 — very close to a 32-year high. Thus, Japanese Deputy Finance Minister for Economic Affairs Masato Kanda yesterday warned that the current weakening of the yen does not correspond to fundamental indicators and is clearly caused by speculation. He concluded that the authorities would take appropriate measures against excessive fluctuations.
However, neither verbal interventions nor the publication of Japanese Core CPI values led to strong fluctuations in the USD/JPY market. Why so?
From a fundamental analysis point of view, market participants are keeping their focus on the publication of Core PCE Price Index values in the US, as well as the Fed Chairman's speech — both events are scheduled for Friday (at 15:30 and 18:30 GMT+3, respectively).
From a technical analysis point of view, the market stabilization is quite natural, since the USD/JPY price today is near the median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which describes the trajectory of 2024. The market seems to be cooling down after the RSI indicated it was overbought on March 20th.
It is the events of Friday that can bring the market out of the current equilibrium state (despite the fact that Friday is a day off in many countries, volatility can be high).
TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The Spacs Are Back! NASDAQ on A High as Trump's Social Media Co Goes Public
It seems as though the sensationalism that surrounded the controversial SPAC listings, which suddenly found their way onto the technology-friendly NASDAQ exchange in 2021, was a long time ago.
Back at the beginning of this decade, many aspects of business and ways of life that had remained similar for a long period of time changed beyond recognition, and one of them was the admission of 'blank cheque' companies onto the NASDAQ exchange in the form of SPAC entities, with SPAC standing for Special Purchase Acquisition Company.
This method of suddenly going from a start-up status to multi-billion dollar publicly traded company within almost no time and with the ability to bypass much of the criteria required for public listing on major exchanges gave rise to the sudden influx of a number of previously unknown entities which had hardly any market share in their industry sector, yet were able to list their stock publicly for millions, sometimes billions, of dollars.
That era has passed, and many of those firms have experienced severe depreciation of their stock ever since, which has had some degree of effect on the volatility in the NASDAQ index over the tech stock doldrums the ensuing year.
Now, however, with the NASDAQ index flying high and investor appetite for tech stocks well and truly back on track, there is another interesting dynamic which has brought the concept of SPAC listings back into the public arena.
Today, the NASDAQ index was trading at 18,398 at 9.30 am UK time, which is another increment on the steady upward direction the index has been building upon all of this year so far since rebounding back from a low point of 14,127 in late November last year.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The US Currency Corrects after Recent Growth
The incoming fundamental data of the past five-day period contributed to the strengthening of the American currency in almost all major pairs. Thus, the pound/US dollar currency pair lost more than 200 pp over several trading sessions, the euro/US dollar pair retested 1.0800, and buyers of the USD/JPY pair managed to keep the price above 151.00.
GBP/USD
The decision of British officials to leave the base interest rate at the same level did not contribute to the strengthening of the pound/US dollar pair. And the hint from the head of the Bank of England about a possible rate cut at the next meeting led to sharp losses in the pair and a test at the price of the important support level of 1.2600. At the moment, the pair is consolidating just above the mentioned mark. In the case of a positive fundamental background from the UK, the price may correct to 1.2800-1.2740. If the downtrend resumes, the price on the gbp/usd chart may retest 1.2570.Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee. A little later, the CBI retail sales index will be published.
EUR/USD
Buyers of the single European currency failed to strengthen above the significant resistance level of 1.0900. After the Fed meeting last week, the pair lost more than 150 pp and settled below the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that if the range 1.0900-1.0870 finally becomes resistance, another price approach to 1.0800 is possible.TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dives While USD/CAD Gains Bullish Pace
GBP/USD declined below the 1.2665 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3610 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today
· The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone.· There was a break below a key rising channel with support at 1.2630 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3555 support zone.
· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3575 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2690 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar.The pair even traded below 1.2665 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2580 level. A low was formed at 1.2575 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. The pair climbed above the 1.2600 level.
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**Disclaimer:**This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by:
→ Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell their products abroad and then convert the profits into yen.
→ Demand for shares of Japanese companies paying dividends. For example, shares of air conditioner manufacturer Daikin Industries rose by 2.82%.
At the same time, the NIKKEI-225 chart signals indicate the likelihood of a correction, since:
→ The price is near the upper border of the ascending channel, from which resistance can be expected.
→ Based on the results of trading in the Asian session, a long upper shadow is forming on today’s candle – a sign of selling pressure (as shown by the arrow). It seems that the price of NIKKEI-225 is difficult to stay above the level of 41,000.TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
EUR/USD Analysis: The Price Today Has Set Its Minimum Since the Beginning of March
As the EUR/USD chart shows at the start of the European session today, the exchange rate has dropped below EUR 1.08 per US dollar.
Tuesday's news contributed to this. According to Nasdaq.com, on March 26, 2024, The Conference Board published a report for March, according to which the CB Consumer Confidence index of consumer confidence dropped sharply: fact = 104.7; forecast = 107.0; previous value = 106.7. Comments followed: “Consumers remain concerned about increased price levels, which dominates the responses. March written responses showed growing concerns about food and gasoline prices.”
As a result, the US dollar strengthened (as shown by arrow No. 1). After all, if the published data give grounds to assess inflation as high, then the Fed’s tough policy may last longer.
Today's decline reflects a rebalancing in market sentiment.
Fed spokesman Christopher Waller added doubts about easing monetary policy yesterday, saying that the economy does not require a dramatic reduction in rates, so the Fed is in no hurry.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors -
Stock Market Analysis: NVDA Losing Leadership?
Since the start of the week, the S&P-500 Index (US500) is up about 0.58% while NVDA's share price is down about 3.8%. This is a worrying sign for Nvidia stock investors — could it be a sign that NVDA is no longer the market leader?
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan's chief equity strategist, warned of a potential "surprise" shock to the stock market, Bloomberg reported. He's noticed a trend in recent history where gains in popular momentum stocks like NVDA are often followed by corrections. This situation has repeated itself three times since the 2008 global financial crisis.
“One day this may happen completely unexpectedly. This has happened in the past; we’ve had flash collapses,” Lakos-Bujas said in the webinar. “One large fund starts cutting some positions, a second fund hears this and tries to reposition, a third fund is basically caught off guard, and then, you know, we start to unwind more and more momentum.”
He noted the potential for innovation in artificial intelligence as a major source of surprise, emphasizing that these opportunities are dwindling and risks are growing in the background.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors -
Commodities and European currencies Test Key Supports
On the eve of the Easter holidays, the main currency pairs have slightly slowed down the development of the main trends and are consolidating near key ranges, the breakdown of which could provoke a change in the vectors of medium-term movements. Thus, the US dollar/loonie currency pair is trading near 1.3600, euro/US dollar sellers are trying to push through the support at 1.0800, and the pound/US dollar pair is once again testing 1.2600.
USD/CAD
Fluctuations in the oil market and the Fed’s indecisiveness regarding changing the vector of monetary policy contributed to the strengthening of the USD/CAD pair to recent extremes at 1.3600. If buyers of the pair manage to gain a foothold above the mentioned level, the price on the usd/cad chart may continue to rise in the direction of 1.4000-1.3800. Otherwise, another price test of 1.3400-1.3300 is possible.Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the publication of Canadian GDP data for January is expected. US GDP data for the fourth quarter will also be published and weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors -
Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Gain Bullish Momentum
Gold price started a steady increase above the $2,200 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might rise toward $85.00.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today
· Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,158 zone against the US Dollar.· A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,218 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
· Crude oil prices rallied above the $81.60 and $82.00 resistance levels.
· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $82.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,158 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $2,175 level.There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,200. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,220 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,235, A high was formed near $2,236.20 and the price is now consolidating gains.
The current price action is positive above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,157 swing low to the $2,236 high. The RSI is still stable near 60 and the price could aim for more gains.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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DOGE Price Increases by 170% in Less Than 2 Months
On February 1, 2024, the DOGE/USD rate was = 0.0783. On the last Friday of March, it rose to 0.2150. The rising price means Dogecoin is now the eighth-largest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization, overtaking Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX) in recent days.
The reason for the positive sentiment is the support of the token from Elon Musk.
As the Independent writes:
→ Rumors have intensified that Elon will integrate DOGE into his social network X (Twitter), which he planned to make “an app for everything.” Musk's other companies, SpaceX and Tesla, already support payments in Dogecoin.
→ According to Elon, Dogecoin has the potential to become the main online currency due to its ease of use and efficiency.
→ The billionaire also said that DOGE could become the official currency on Mars if SpaceX can establish a permanent human colony there.
→ The price of DOGE/USD is also supported by the general bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market.
The DOGE/USD chart shows that:
→ the price moves within an uptrend (shown in blue);
→ the price of Dogecoin has overcome the psychological level of $0.2 per coin;
→ the price is near the upper border of the channel - the price action on March 28-29 can be interpreted as an attempt to break through this resistance.TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors -
Although UK-100 Index Is Near All-time Highs, UK Economy Slips into Recession
echnically, a national economic recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and yesterday's Office for National Statistics data confirmed that this has happened — UK GDP fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
The Guardian writes that the recession may be deeper than it seems at first glance:
→ Increased government spending (including for the military) masks a deep and persistent decline in production.
→ The economy is shrinking despite population growth;
→ In the fourth quarter of 2023, the deficit widened to £26.3 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, up £5.9 billion from the third quarter.
→ The big problem is the decline in goods exports. Soaring prices for imported raw materials and energy have played a major role in increasing the cost of producing goods in the UK and making it difficult to sell them abroad.However, the price of the UK-100 index (or FTSE-100) is near all-time highs. This is because the Bank of England may ease monetary policy to avoid worsening the recession. And this will be a positive factor for the development of the top 100 companies whose shares are included in the index — this expectation is included in the current quote.
The UK-100 Index chart shows that:
→ today the price of UK-100 is moving within an upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ demand forces are active at the lower border of the channel, quickly absorbing all declines (shown by arrows);
→ the bulls confirmed their dominance upon breaking through the 7,800 level, forming a strong cup-and-handle pattern;
→ the psychological level of 8,000 points prevents the bulls from maintaining the growth rate - when approaching it, the bullish candles become narrower. Buyer confidence is waning. This creates difficulties for the price to realize the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the channel.
TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors -
The US Dollar Declines against Major World Currencies
The US dollar is weakening against the euro, yen and pound. In February, the core personal consumption expenditure index fell from 0.5% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 2.9% to 2.8% on an annual basis, justifying preliminary estimates. Thus, the slowdown in inflationary pressure continues at a steady pace, convincing investors that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates the same in May and begin lowering them in June. In addition, personal income increased by 0.3%, less than expected by 0.4%, and expenses by 0.8%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.5%: this may mean continued risks of rising consumer prices, but for now investors don't pay any attention to these statistics.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is moving in a narrow range around the 1.0780 level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0860, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0880. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0768, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0750.Market activity is reduced because Friday was a public holiday in most eurozone countries, so financial institutions are closed and investor activity is reduced. However, market participants were monitoring comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding its future actions. Thus, the head of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that the regulator will probably start with a moderate reduction in interest rates, but it does not matter much whether this happens in April or June. The official added that after the first cut in borrowing costs, it would not necessarily continue at the next ECB meeting. This position coincides with the expectations of most economists surveyed by Reuters.
TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors
