Market Analysis By FXOpen
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US Dollar Shows Record Weekly Gain Since Mid-January
The US dollar strengthened on Friday ahead of a series of highly anticipated central bank meetings next week, including the US Federal Reserve. The dollar rose 1.3% for the week, its biggest gain since mid-January, after a mixed batch of data showed the U.S. economy remained resilient. That suggests the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates high for longer or reduce its planned number of rate cuts this year. Data on Friday showed a strong US manufacturing sector, with output rebounding 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in the previous month. The University of Michigan's preliminary overall consumer sentiment index for the month was 76.5, down from a final reading of 76.9 in February. The Fed's measure of annual inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% in March. The five-year inflation forecast also remained stable at 2.9% for the fourth month in a row, according to the survey. The US Federal Reserve meeting will take place on Wednesday and analysts do not expect officials to make changes to monetary policy, but expect to receive forecasts for borrowing costs for the current year. The market continues to price in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, the first of which could come in June.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0885. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0899, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0963. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0840.Market activity remains subdued at the beginning of the week as traders are in no hurry to open positions in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers. Today the eurozone will publish February inflation statistics. The forecasts do not assume any changes in the consumer price index compared to previous data. On Thursday, March 21, trading participants will evaluate March data on business activity in the eurozone, as well as the ECB's monthly economic report, which may clarify the prospects for the regulator's monetary policy for the current year. Forecasts for business activity indices suggest an increase in the indicator from 46.5 points to 47.0 points in the manufacturing sector and from 50.2 points to 50.5 points in the services sector.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Bank of Japan Ends the Era of Negative Interest Rates
The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates for 17 years. For 8 years, it was in the negative zone.
But today there was a dramatic shift in monetary policy — the Bank of Japan announced a decision to increase the interest rate from -0.1% to 0.1%.
The central bank also abandoned yield curve control (YCC), a policy that had been in place since 2016 and capped long-term interest rates near zero.
Considering the scale of the decisions taken, the reaction of the yen exchange rate relative to other currencies turned out to be moderate. This is because the plans of the Bank of Japan have been discussed for a long time, including in official sources of information. Therefore, it is acceptable to assume that participants in the currency markets have already laid down the probability of today's event.
In fact, the yen has weakened as a result, but this may only be an initial reaction in which markets are reassessing the impact of the Bank of Japan's decision over a range of short-term to long-term horizons.
The USD/JPY chart today shows that:
→ the yen exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar;
→ the rate continues to develop in an ascending channel (marked in blue). At the same time, its median line was tested, which can serve as resistance from the point of view of technical analysis of USD/JPY.Let us mark on the chart the top of the year around the level of 150.888.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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A Yen For Volatility: US Dollar Surges as Japan Ends 8 Years of Negative Rates
Eight long years have passed since the Bank of Japan introduced its controversial yet pioneering attempt to encourage spending in what has become an ultra-conservative economy, which has experienced a sustained period of stagnation.
In 2016, Japan's central bankers decided to introduce negative interest rates, a term which refers to the maintaining of artificially low interest rates in order to encourage businesses and private individuals to borrow money and therefore spend, which would in turn increase the size of the Japanese economy and result in economic growth.
During that eight-year period, times have not been easy in Japan with regard to its national economic situation, and despite the country having not invoked any lockdowns or restrictions in the way that many Western nations did four years ago and a longstanding series of challenges faced the Japanese fiscal situation.
Over the course of time, Japan's demographics have changed, and it has the longest life expectancy in the world; therefore, a large proportion of retired people and a conservative younger generation have appeared to save money rather than spend or invest it.
Many analyses consider that the negative interest rate policy was invoked to encourage such people to withdraw their savings from bank accounts and either spend it or invest it in other areas, such as property or business ventures.
Just six months after the introduction of the policy in 2016, the Japanese economy had not grown, and in some reports there are opinions which state that Japan's authorities can now look back on 25 years of failed economic stimulus attempts.
That is a harsh criticism, however it appears that Japan's central bank has given up on the most recent one and in a landmark decision has today put an end to eight years of negative interest rates.
This means a return to standard market rates, and the result in the currency markets is noticeable.
The US dollar has made gains against the Japanese Yen during today's trading session, beginning with the Asian market.
The USDJPY pair is now trading at 150.424 Yen to the US Dollar, which puts it back at the high point it was at when March began.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Again, USD/JPY Rallies Above 151
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
· The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0900 support zone.· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0870 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
· USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.
· There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 150.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0960 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0900 support zone against the US Dollar.The pair even declined below 1.0870 and tested the 1.0835 zone. A low was formed near 1.0834 and the pair is now correcting losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0906 swing high to the 1.0834 low at 1.0870.
Let us mark on the chart the top of the year around the level of 150.888.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Correction in Crypto Markets: BTC/USD Rate Drops to $60,000
On March 18, we wrote that bears became more active near the $70,000 level.
As the BTC/USD chart shows, today the price of Bitcoin is already close to the psychological level of USD 60k, while the price of Ethereum is close to USD 3,000.
According to MarketWatch, experts consider the decline to be a correction that is “long overdue” as part of an upward trend. According to Fundstrat, Monday saw net outflows from BTC ETFs for the first time since March 1, amounting to about $154.3 million.
What's next?
From a technical analysis point of view, the price of Bitcoin, given an increase of approximately 90% from point A (around USD 38.8k) to point B (around USD 73.4k), a normal correction of 50% indicates the prospect of a decline to the area of USD 56.1k.
Having constructed a channel (shown in blue), taking into account extrema A and B, as well as turning points (indicated by arrows), it is permissible to assume that the price of Bitcoin will drop to the lower boundary of the channel in the area of $57k, where it currently lies.
Thus, the USD 56-57k area can be seen as a target for the bears, who have seized the initiative after the upward momentum has exhausted itself (judging by the divergence on the RSI indicator).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
TSLA analysis: Price Returns to Above the $170 Level, But for How Long?
After forming a low of the year on March 14, the TSLA share price managed to rise above the USD 170 level — investors reacted positively to Tesla’s decision to increase prices for electric vehicles in the US and Europe.
However, the TSLA stock market remains under pressure:
the TSLA price performs noticeably worse than the S&P 500 index;
the price forms a downward channel (shown in red);
Goldman Sachs analysts cut their forecast for Tesla shares to USD 190 from USD 220 for the next 12 months due to problems with production and sales.Yahoo writes that investors are not happy with Musk's attitude. The fall in Tesla shares could quickly stop if the company gets a “real CEO” or Musk changes his position and returns to work and positively promoting the brand.
What is the market outlook?
Bullish arguments:
→ the price is near an important support zone, which is formed by the 2023 pattern: a bullish gap that has been successfully tested;
→ a decrease in the TSLA price below the lower border of the downward channel creates short-term oversold conditions in the market.
→ Fortune reported on March 15 that Cathie Wood's fund bought USD 35 million of TSLA stock.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The price of the S&P 500 set a historical record amid news from the Fed
On March 14, we wrote: “The US500 stock index market is showing signs of positivity, indicating that an attempt to overcome the resistance of 5,200 points with a new record high may be made in the near future.” Yesterday's event created the momentum that allowed the bulls to do this.
On Wednesday evening it became known that it was decided to keep the interest rate at 5.5% in the US — this was expected. What market participants paid more attention to was the dovish tone of the Fed. Thus, it became known that by the end of 2024 there may be 3 consecutive rate cuts.
According to Jerome Powell:
→ recent inflation data turned out to be hotter than expected;
→ however, “in fact, the overall story has not changed, it is a gradual decline in inflation along a somewhat bumpy road.”Thus, fears associated with a longer period of tight monetary policy have been dispelled. As a result, the US dollar fell in price against a number of currencies, and the US stock market index S&P 500 soared to a new historical high around the level of 5,250.
Technical analysis of the US500 chart today shows that:
→ the market continues its upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ the price is in the upper half of the channel – a sign of increased demand.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
USD/CHF Analysis: SNB Decision Breaks Multi-month Trend
According to Reuters, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the appreciation of the franc creates problems for exporters. Thus, indicating intentions to weaken the CHF.
His words in January seem to be in line with how events are developing — the franc has weakened against the US dollar by more than 6% since the start of the year.
Moreover, today, quite unexpectedly, the Swiss National Bank decided to lower the interest rate: actual = 1.50%, forecast = 1.75%, previous value = 1.75%.
The result of the decision today was a sharp weakening of the franc against other currencies, including the US dollar.
Technical analysis of the USD/CHF chart today shows that the bulls are breaking the downward trend (shown by the red channel), which dates back to the fall of 2022. Wherein:
→ the price of USD/CHF may continue to develop within the channel shown by the blue lines, including a rollback from the 4-month high;
→ in case of a rollback, the level of 0.8888 may constitute support (as a former resistance) - just like the lower blue line.If the weakening of the franc, which is facilitated by the SNB, continues, the price of USD/CHF may reach the level of 0.9095 - near which the market has repeatedly formed reversals.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The Yen and European Currencies Strengthen after the Fed Meeting
Yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve disappointed dollar buyers. The rate remained at the same level as expected (5.25–5.50%). However, according to the updated FOMC forecast, it will be reduced three times this year by 0.25%, in contrast to four in the December forecast. The 2025 forecast also shows fewer expectations for rate cuts, just three. Naturally, investors' disappointment with this turn of events resulted in sales of the American currency in almost all directions. Thus, the US dollar/yen currency pair rebounded from recent highs at 151.80 and is currently trading below 151.00, the pound/US dollar retested 1.2800, and euro/US dollar buyers managed to strengthen the pair above 1.0900.
GBP/USD
Weak data on inflation and producer price index in the UK for February, published yesterday, led to the price falling below 1.2680, but by the evening, pound buyers managed to win back losses and test 1.2800. At the same time, today the pair faces an equally important day, rich in foundations.A meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled at 15:00 GMT+3, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be made. Analysts assume that the rate will remain at the same level (5.25%). What is important for market participants will be the number of votes of committee members for a rate reduction this year. If the number of officials who believe that the rate should be reduced at the next BoE meetings is more than one, the pound/US dollar pair may decline to 1.2700-1.2600. Otherwise, the price growth on the GBP/USD chart may resume in the direction of 1.3000-1.2900.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal More Losses
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6575 and 0.6550 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.6000 zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
· The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level against the US Dollar.· There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6570 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
· NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6105 resistance zone.
· There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.6040 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6635 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6600 support against the US Dollar.The pair even settled below 0.6575 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6504 swing low to the 0.6634 high. Moreover, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6570.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
AAPL Share Price Falls More Than 4% after Antitrust Lawsuit
Yesterday, the Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, alleging that the company has established a monopoly with the iPhone, which has harmed consumers, developers and competitors.
“Each step in Apple's course of conduct built and reinforced the moat around its smartphone monopoly,” the government said in the 88-page lawsuit.
The result of news of the lawsuit was a sharp decline in Apple's share price by more than 4%. This is a serious blow to stocks that are already underperforming the broader market. As confirmation, we note that yesterday, the ratio of the S&P 500 index to the AAPL share price set a maximum since November 2021.
The chart for AAPL stock shows an increasingly bearish picture:
→ The pace of the strong bull run (shown in the blue channel) of 2023 remains in the past, forming an A top near the USD 195 per share level of AAPL.
→ The price tested this level, forming top B.
→ Thus, the level of USD 195 works as an important resistance, around which a double top A-B pattern has formed (subjectively, it can be regarded as a triple, taking into account the high of January 24.
→ Price action increasingly defines the contours of the downward channel (shown in red).
→ While developing within this channel, the price has already dropped below the uptrend line (shown in green).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
GBP/USD Price Falls to 1.26 after Bank of England Decision
Yesterday, the GBP/USD market experienced a day of intense volatility due to a number of news items. According to Trading Economics:
→ UK retail sales were flat last month after a strong rise of 3.6% in January, contrasting with market expectations of a 0.3% decline.
→ The Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged. However, its head Andrew Bailey hinted at a potential reduction in interest rates. He noted positive indicators of lower inflation but stressed the need for greater confidence in managing price pressures.
Thus, a clearer prospect of easing monetary policy in the UK (which, however, is relevant for many countries) has become a driver for the weakening of the British pound.
The GBP/USD chart today shows that:
→ The price fell below USD 1.26, forming a March low;
→ The USD 1.28 level looks like an important resistance — at the beginning of the year a head-and-shoulders pattern formed there, after which in March there was an unsuccessful bullish breakout of this formation and a test of the USD 1.28 level.
→ The contours of the downward channel become more obvious on the chart (shown in red).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Bitcoin Price Recovered over the Weekend, But Market Anxiety Remains
From the point of view of technical analysis of BTC/USD, on Friday evening the price of Bitcoin was near the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue). This was alarming as it indicated that the market action could result in a weekly bearish candle forming with the price of BTC down by around 5% — something that hasn't happened since August of last year.
However, this did not happen, as the price recovered over the weekend, forming rebounds from the lower border of the channel. The lower shadows of the candles are a sign of demand forces. Moreover, the bulls have broken through the downward trend line (shown in black). Will the bulls be able to return the price of Bitcoin to an upward trajectory within the specified trend?
Doubts remain.
→ Bitcoin “still looks overbought,” JPMorgan strategists warned, predicting a decline to USD 42k.
→ Bloomberg writes about record capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs last week.
→ The level of 70k looks like an important psychological resistance. Above it, the Bitcoin price formed a double top pattern with an all-time high at point A, after which the bears clearly became more active. They successfully pushed the price to minimum B, breaking the support of the channel median line.The price of Bitcoin starts the new week around the 50% retracement from the decline A→B (about -16%). This gives reason to assume the development of consolidation.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Big in Japan: Several Years of Failed Stimulus Ends, But Stocks Go Up!
Japan's notoriously conservative approach to business practices combined with a world renowned reputation for engineering excellence has been a winning combination for the island nation for over 60 years.
A relatively small country was able to successfully market a range of products in many sectors ranging from electronic goods to automobiles to a worldwide audience to the extent that Japanese corporations are now global giants with head offices in various countries across the world and the names of these corporations household names in all continents.
An incredible attention to detail, highly educated population and unfaltering work ethic transformed Japan into the ultra-sophisticated nation that it is today, however perhaps surprisingly this commercial dominance has not always equaled a world-beating national economy.
Over recent years, the Japanese Yen has been subject to various periods of volatility, and Japanese stocks, once the absolute pinnacle of economic success during the 'Yuppie Years' of the 1980s when there was no internet and heavy manufacturing companies and property development giants were the largest companies in the world.
Since the rise of the Silicon Valley tech giants, all of which are a creation of the Internet revolution, however, Japan's indices have been far less of a talking point among traders and investors of the stocks of large companies as the absolute dominance of the 'Magnificent 7' and the halo effect they have created around other internet-based companies, software firms and e-commerce tours de force has changed the entire focus from traditional bricks and mortar companies toward those whose products are in the ether.
Japan's economic policy has trodden a different course to that of North America and Europe of late, too. Japanese central bankers had attempted to stimulate spending by maintaining a negative interest rate, to no avail. This came to an end last week, when the Japanese interest rate was increased to zero, representing the first interest rate rise in 17 years, and still nobody pays interest.
Giving up on stimulating a slumbering economy has had an interesting effect, however. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index, which tracks the best performing and most prestigious stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, has been trading at high levels to the extent that it is the top moving index on FXOpen today, trading at 40.399 points as of 8.17 am UK time according to FXOpen market data.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidation ahead of US News
This morning, news about inflation in Japan was published. It did not bring any surprises — inflation in Japan is gradually weakening as expected. Core CPI in annual terms: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.6%, a year ago = 3.0%.
We also note that the official position is aimed at preventing further weakening of the yen, as the USD/JPY price has risen more than 7% since the beginning of 2024 — very close to a 32-year high. Thus, Japanese Deputy Finance Minister for Economic Affairs Masato Kanda yesterday warned that the current weakening of the yen does not correspond to fundamental indicators and is clearly caused by speculation. He concluded that the authorities would take appropriate measures against excessive fluctuations.
However, neither verbal interventions nor the publication of Japanese Core CPI values led to strong fluctuations in the USD/JPY market. Why so?
From a fundamental analysis point of view, market participants are keeping their focus on the publication of Core PCE Price Index values in the US, as well as the Fed Chairman's speech — both events are scheduled for Friday (at 15:30 and 18:30 GMT+3, respectively).
From a technical analysis point of view, the market stabilization is quite natural, since the USD/JPY price today is near the median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which describes the trajectory of 2024. The market seems to be cooling down after the RSI indicated it was overbought on March 20th.
It is the events of Friday that can bring the market out of the current equilibrium state (despite the fact that Friday is a day off in many countries, volatility can be high).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
The Spacs Are Back! NASDAQ on A High as Trump's Social Media Co Goes Public
It seems as though the sensationalism that surrounded the controversial SPAC listings, which suddenly found their way onto the technology-friendly NASDAQ exchange in 2021, was a long time ago.
Back at the beginning of this decade, many aspects of business and ways of life that had remained similar for a long period of time changed beyond recognition, and one of them was the admission of 'blank cheque' companies onto the NASDAQ exchange in the form of SPAC entities, with SPAC standing for Special Purchase Acquisition Company.
This method of suddenly going from a start-up status to multi-billion dollar publicly traded company within almost no time and with the ability to bypass much of the criteria required for public listing on major exchanges gave rise to the sudden influx of a number of previously unknown entities which had hardly any market share in their industry sector, yet were able to list their stock publicly for millions, sometimes billions, of dollars.
That era has passed, and many of those firms have experienced severe depreciation of their stock ever since, which has had some degree of effect on the volatility in the NASDAQ index over the tech stock doldrums the ensuing year.
Now, however, with the NASDAQ index flying high and investor appetite for tech stocks well and truly back on track, there is another interesting dynamic which has brought the concept of SPAC listings back into the public arena.
Today, the NASDAQ index was trading at 18,398 at 9.30 am UK time, which is another increment on the steady upward direction the index has been building upon all of this year so far since rebounding back from a low point of 14,127 in late November last year.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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The US Currency Corrects after Recent Growth
The incoming fundamental data of the past five-day period contributed to the strengthening of the American currency in almost all major pairs. Thus, the pound/US dollar currency pair lost more than 200 pp over several trading sessions, the euro/US dollar pair retested 1.0800, and buyers of the USD/JPY pair managed to keep the price above 151.00.
GBP/USD
The decision of British officials to leave the base interest rate at the same level did not contribute to the strengthening of the pound/US dollar pair. And the hint from the head of the Bank of England about a possible rate cut at the next meeting led to sharp losses in the pair and a test at the price of the important support level of 1.2600. At the moment, the pair is consolidating just above the mentioned mark. In the case of a positive fundamental background from the UK, the price may correct to 1.2800-1.2740. If the downtrend resumes, the price on the gbp/usd chart may retest 1.2570.Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee. A little later, the CBI retail sales index will be published.
EUR/USD
Buyers of the single European currency failed to strengthen above the significant resistance level of 1.0900. After the Fed meeting last week, the pair lost more than 150 pp and settled below the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that if the range 1.0900-1.0870 finally becomes resistance, another price approach to 1.0800 is possible.TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dives While USD/CAD Gains Bullish Pace
GBP/USD declined below the 1.2665 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3610 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today
· The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone.· There was a break below a key rising channel with support at 1.2630 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3555 support zone.
· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3575 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2690 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar.The pair even traded below 1.2665 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2580 level. A low was formed at 1.2575 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. The pair climbed above the 1.2600 level.
TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
**Disclaimer:**This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by:
→ Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell their products abroad and then convert the profits into yen.
→ Demand for shares of Japanese companies paying dividends. For example, shares of air conditioner manufacturer Daikin Industries rose by 2.82%.
At the same time, the NIKKEI-225 chart signals indicate the likelihood of a correction, since:
→ The price is near the upper border of the ascending channel, from which resistance can be expected.
→ Based on the results of trading in the Asian session, a long upper shadow is forming on today’s candle – a sign of selling pressure (as shown by the arrow). It seems that the price of NIKKEI-225 is difficult to stay above the level of 41,000.TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
EUR/USD Analysis: The Price Today Has Set Its Minimum Since the Beginning of March
As the EUR/USD chart shows at the start of the European session today, the exchange rate has dropped below EUR 1.08 per US dollar.
Tuesday's news contributed to this. According to Nasdaq.com, on March 26, 2024, The Conference Board published a report for March, according to which the CB Consumer Confidence index of consumer confidence dropped sharply: fact = 104.7; forecast = 107.0; previous value = 106.7. Comments followed: “Consumers remain concerned about increased price levels, which dominates the responses. March written responses showed growing concerns about food and gasoline prices.”
As a result, the US dollar strengthened (as shown by arrow No. 1). After all, if the published data give grounds to assess inflation as high, then the Fed’s tough policy may last longer.
Today's decline reflects a rebalancing in market sentiment.
Fed spokesman Christopher Waller added doubts about easing monetary policy yesterday, saying that the economy does not require a dramatic reduction in rates, so the Fed is in no hurry.
TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors
