Market Analysis By FXOpen
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USD/CAD Analysis: Canadian Dollar Strengthens after Bank of Canada Decision
The Bank of Canada has decided to keep interest rates at 5.0% for the fifth time in a row, it announced yesterday, as it continues to look for clearer signs that inflation is moving closer to the bank's 2% target before considering rate cuts.
According to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem:
→ the Bank is concerned that underlying inflationary pressures remain.
→ It is too early to ease restrictive policies. There is a clear consensus within the Board of Governors that the time has not come (for rate cuts).
→ We are now in a difficult phase of the monetary cycle.These hawkish statements contributed to the Canadian dollar strengthening against other currencies, in particular against the US dollar.
Technical analysis of the USD/CAD chart today shows that:
→ for most of 2024, the price moves within the channel shown in blue;
→ yesterday’s news lowered the price from its upper limit to the median;
→ the psychological level of 1.36 retained its role as resistance, although the bulls repeatedly tried to overcome it.If the bears maintain the initiative, the price of USD/CAD may fall below:
→ breaking through the median line of the channel;
→ breaking through the local trend line (shown by the orange line);
→ attempting to break through the psychological level of 1.35.In this scenario, the most obvious target for bears may be the lower boundary of the channel, with news about inflation and interest rates remaining the main drivers in the USD/CAD market. Today, by the way, at 16:15 GMT+3, the decision on interest rates from the ECB will become known — be prepared for surges in volatility.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Start Fresh Rally
AUD/USD is gaining pace and recently cleared 0.6600. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6200 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6480 zone against the US Dollar.
A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6615 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD is gaining pace above the 0.6155 support.
A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6170 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6480, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Aussie Dollar gained strong bids and started a decent increase above the 0.6540 resistance against the US Dollar.The bulls pushed the pair above the 0.6580 resistance zone. There was a close above the 0.6600 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6635 zone. A high is formed at 0.6633 and the pair is now consolidating above 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6477 swing low to the 0.6633 high.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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EUR/USD Hits 8-week High
The euro is trading above USD 1.09, hitting its strongest point since mid-January on Friday, helped by news from both the US and Europe.
Friday's news showed that the US labor market is weakening:
→ The change in employment in the non-farm sector showed an increase in jobs = 275k for the month, although last month it was = +353k.
→ The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, although it was 3.7% for 3 months.
News of a weakening labour market could put pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy.Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB kept borrowing costs at a record high, citing significant progress in containing inflation, and revised its inflation expectations downward, forecasting price growth of 2.3% in 2024, and 1.9% in 2025. And during a press conference last Thursday, ECB President Lagarde told reporters that policymakers had not discussed rate cuts at that meeting.
Thus, there is reason to believe that the Fed will start lowering rates earlier (it started raising them earlier than the ECB). And this assumption is shared by many market participants, judging by the bullish dynamics in the EUR/USD market.
Today's chart shows:
→ the price of EUR/USD has been moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue) since mid-February. Moreover, it seems that the median line acts as resistance — Friday’s peak indicates this;
→ the price rose to the important psychological level of 1.1000 – it served as resistance in January;
→ the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, forming a bearish divergence.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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The rally is over! NASDAQ leads US stock market declines
The halcyon days of US tech stock rallies with increasing values of companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange, which have taken place alongside the increasing values of other North American indices, have ended abruptly.
The past few weeks have been of great interest, with the NASDAQ index leading the charge toward a seemingly unrelenting increase in value as confidence in large companies developing AI technology, such as NVIDIA, well known for its graphics cards and now highly engrossed in AI development, as well as strong performance from specialist American firms such as Broadcom and cloud computing giant Cloudstrike Holdings which have led the rally well into March.
As well as the NASDAQ index having tailed off, other US stock indices have experienced similar decrements.
The tables turned quite significantly at the end of last week; however, when the NASDAQ index began to reduce in value, the all-time highs of last week were not replicated this week.
On Friday, the NASDAQ index was trading at 18,273.8 according to FXOpen pricing; however, as market participants anticipate the opening of the US market today, the tech-friendly index is valued at 17,975.7 at the bottom of the candlestick in the pre-market opening hours.
In keeping with the nature of US tech stocks, volatility is once again a subject of discussion across mainstream reports and among analysts, especially given that one of the contingents of the NASDAQ index that was contributing to its rally, NVIDIA, has experienced a decline in stock value by 5.5%, according to some media reports, during the course of Friday last week after a substantial rally that has seen it gain approximately 80% year to date.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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US Dollar Ended the Week under Pressure
The February labour market report was published in the United States. The number of new jobs created by the national economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 275.0k in January after an increase of 229.0k a month earlier, while experts expected an increase of 200.0k. It should also be noted that the January figure was revised from the previous estimate of 353.0k jobs. The average hourly wage in annual terms adjusted from 4.4% to 4.3%, and in monthly terms, from 0.5% to 0.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February increased sharply from 3.7% to 3.9%.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0980, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1100. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0887, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0842.
Market activity remains subdued as investors analyse macroeconomic data released last week. On Friday, March 8, trading participants drew attention to the decline in the annual dynamics of industrial production in Germany in January by 5.5% after -3.5% in the previous month, and in monthly terms the figure strengthened by 1.0% after a reduction of 2 .0% in December against a forecast of 0.6%, which allows the German economy to emerge from recession in the near future. The German producer price index added 0.2% monthly after -0.8% in December, and slowed down by 4.4% year-on-year after -5.1%, while markets were expecting -6.6%. Trading participants also assessed statistics on the eurozone GDP product for the fourth quarter of 2023: on a quarterly basis, the figure remained at 0.0%, and on an annual basis it increased by 0.1%, which coincided with expectations.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100, BTC/USD, XAU/USD
Financial market participants expect an easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The prospect of lower rates puts pressure on the value of the dollar, which in turn pushes up dollar-denominated assets. This contributed to the setting of record highs:
→ The price of BTC/USD exceeded 70k dollars per bitcoin
→ The price of XAU/USD exceeded USD 2,200 per ounce of gold
→ The NASDAQ-100 index reached 18,400 points.
But are markets too optimistic? Let's see what the technical analysis of the NASDAQ-100 chart shows today:→ The price is in an uptrend (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of the year. The price is in the upper half, which may indicate the strength of demand.
→ Top C only slightly exceeded the level of the previous top A. It is not surprising that a bearish divergence has formed on the oscillators — Awesome Osc among them. Buyers who entered long positions at the breakout of top A found themselves in a trap. Sellers who held stops above A lost their positions.Pay attention to the nature of the NASDAQ-100 price movement from tops to local lows A→B and C→D. Each time, the bears were able to quickly lower the price as soon as it exceeded the 18.333 level. This indicates that sellers are active — perhaps they are taking profits after the rally since the beginning of the year.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Australian Dollar Volatility Ends in Lull Ahead Of US Data
The Australian Dollar has recently been displaying signs of volatility, with its price varying considerably against the US Dollar over the past few months.
From a low point in October last year, the AUDUSD pair went on a sudden rally, which lasted until December before beginning to fall flat during the course of January. As February drew to a close, the AUDUSD pair began to rise in value again, reaching 0.66251 on March 4, according to FXOpen charts.
Over the past week, the Australian Dollar has been a bit dormant in its movements against the US Dollar; however, this morning's trading session in Australia and across the Asian market session began to demonstrate that some renewed interest is beginning to be shown in the Australian Dollar as the Australian economy begins to look a bit stronger.
This morning as the European markets begin to open, activity from the Australian market is being analysed and one matter of interest is that the Australian S&P index along with the ASX 200 which is an index featuring 200 well capitalised stocks on Australia's ASX exchange, showed improvement over previous performances which is being mooted as a potential strengthening factor for the Australian Dollar.
Today in Australia, financial services executives have held meetings to discuss the GDP within Australia for the fourth quarter of 2023, with nothing out of the ordinary having surfaced and data in line with expectation; however, there is anticipation regarding the forthcoming monetary policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve which may affect the value of the AUDUSD, and forthcoming CPI data in the United States for February looks set to meet expectations at 3.1, identical to that for January.
Speculation has begun to arise once again relating to interest rate reductions in the United States, with some reports this week anticipating that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce interest rates in the United States in June this year.
This is being met with mixed views because the previous speculation, which was widespread and very high profile and stated that the monetary policy in the United States would be to begin reducing interest rates in the Spring, was incorrect as the Federal Reserve instead maintained rates at the current status quo. Given that CPI data in the US is not decreasing month on month and the Federal Reserve has postponed interest rate decreases so far because it is committed to reaching the sustainable 2% inflation rate, the jury is still out.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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The US Currency Is Consolidating ahead of the Release of Inflation Data
A rather weak US employment report published last week contributed to the US dollar's decline in almost all areas. Thus, the USD/JPY pair lost more than 150 pp in just a couple of hours, the pound/US dollar pair tested important resistance at 1.2900, and euro/US dollar buyers managed to strengthen above 1.0900.
USD/JPY
The weak fundamentals from the US are bolstering investor confidence that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates later this year. And although recent statements by the head of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, can hardly be called dovish, market participants prefer short-term sales of greenbacks.The USD/JPY currency pair fell to 146.50 at the end of last week. Yesterday, buyers of the pair managed to return the price above 147.00, but the full development of an upward correction has not yet been observed. If the pair manages to consolidate above 148.00, the price may test resistance at the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe near the range of 149.50-149.00. An update to the recent low on the USD/JPY chart could trigger a collapse to the extremes of the current year at 146.00-145.80.
Today's news on the basic US consumer price index for February will be important for the pair's pricing.
GBP/USD
The pound/US dollar currency pair, after strengthening to 1.2900, rolled back a little and is consolidating in a small 100-point corridor. If the pair’s buyers manage to resume the upward movement, the price may strengthen to last year’s extremes at 1.3140-1.3100. We can consider the cancellation of the upward scenario on the GBP/USD chart after a breakdown downward to 1.2600.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Aims More Upsides
GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2745 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8550 zone.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
· The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2780 zone against the US Dollar.· There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8535 resistance zone.
· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8535 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2890 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2820 zone against the US Dollar.A low was formed near 1.2746 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790, but the pair is still below the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2800.
The next major resistance is near the 1.2820 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low. If the RSI moves above 50 and the pair climbs above 1.2820, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2890 level or even 1.2920.
On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2745. If there is a downside break below the 1.2745 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2700 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2665. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Today Is an Ethereum Update. ETH/USD Is Above $4,000
An update is scheduled for the Ethereum network today, approximately at 16:55 GMT+3.
The update is called Dencun and is the biggest code change since April 2023, when the Shapella update was implemented.
Dencun aims to reduce fees on the growing array of ancillary networks running on top of Ethereum, called layer 2 (L2) “aggregates.” The changes involve “proto-dunksharding” technology, which is intended to improve the blockchain’s ability to process data from L2 networks.
It is believed that the implementation of the update will give impetus to the development of projects built on auxiliary networks. On the other hand, there is a risk of failures. Although it is worth noting that Dencun was deployed three times on test networks, and each time there were no problems.
The ETH/USD chart shows that the price of Ethereum today, on the day of the update, is showing bullish behavior:
→ the price moves within the long-term ascending channel (shown in orange). Having pushed off from its lower limit in early February, the price of ETH has already reached its upper limit, which is +76% in about a month!
→ during the growth, the price formed an ascending channel (shown by black lines);
→ the price is trying to consolidate above the psychological level of USD 4,000 for Ethereum.
→ long lower shadows on the candles on March 11-12 give reason to believe that there is strong demand in the market amid news related to an important update for the development of Ethereum.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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GBP/USD: Bulls Show Resilience amid Inflation and GDP News
Yesterday important data on inflation in the United States was published. It caused a significant spike in volatility in financial markets, even though the values were in line with expectations. CPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.4%, forecast = 0.4%, a month ago = 0.3%, a year ago = 0.4%.
And today news came out about UK GDP in monthly terms, which also corresponded to expectations: fact = +0.2%, forecast = +0.2%, a month ago = -0.1%.
It is noteworthy that in both cases the first reaction was a fall in the price of GBP/USD, but then a recovery followed — this is a manifestation of the stability of demand.
From the point of view of technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart, the market has support in the area of 1.276 from:
→ the bottom line of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ Fibo level 50% rollback from impulse A→B;
→ the black long-term trend line originating at the end of 2023, which previously served as resistance, but changed its role after the breakdown on March 7.Will the bulls be able to resume the upward trend within the blue channel?
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Major Currency Pairs Consolidating after the Release of US Inflation Data
The publication of data on the basic consumer price index in the United States contributed to sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR/USD currency pair retested the important level of 1.0900, buyers of the GBP/USD pair did not hold 1.2800 as support, and the USD/JPY pair was sandwiched between 148.00 and 147.00. At the same time, commodity currencies reacted more calmly to US inflation data and continue to trade in rather narrow flat corridors.
GBP/USD
Weak data on industrial production in the UK for January and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.9% against the forecast of 3.8% did not allow buyers of the pound/dollar pair to develop a full-fledged upward trend. If on the GBP/USD chart the range of 1.2820-1.2800 retains its support status, the price may continue to rise in the direction of 1.3100-1.3000. Cancellation of the upward scenario can be considered when moving below the alligator lines on higher time frames.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, today at 15:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the producer price index (PPI) in the US for February. Also at the same time, the core retail sales index for the same period will be published.
EUR/USD
Despite rising inflation in the United States, which casts doubt on whether the American regulator will cut rates in the near future, the EUR/USD pair managed to stay above the important support level of 1.0900. Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that intensive development of the upward trend has not yet been observed, but if buyers of the pair manage to gain a foothold above the psychological level of 1.1000, the price may continue to rise in the direction of 1.1200-1.1100.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
US500: The Market Has Been Growing without Corrections by 2% for 266 Consecutive Trading Sessions
The S&P 500 remains in its longest rally since 2018 without a decline of at least 2%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg; analysts note that there hasn't been a correction of this size in 266 trading sessions.
The positive sentiment of market participants is due to:
→ the prospect of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve;
→ enthusiasm for AI and its positive impact on economic development.However, although the fundamental background is strong, current estimates of the US500 index may be overestimated — in fact, this is the essence of the correction.
The US500 chart shows that:
→ the price is in an upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ the price moves in the upper half of the channel, and the median line acts as support — a sign of strong demand;
→ on the morning of March 14, the market is showing signs of positivity, indicating that an attempt to overcome the resistance of 5,200 points and take a new record high may be made in the near future.However, the MACD is holding back optimism — the popular oscillator is forming a bearish divergence pattern, which hints at the gradual fading of bullish impulses.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Market Analysis: Gold Price Rally Takes Break, Crude Oil Price Surges
Gold price rallied above $2,180 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $82 resistance.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today
· Gold price failed to clear the $2,200 resistance and corrected lower against the US Dollar.· A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $2,170 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
· Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $80.00 resistance zone.
· There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $80.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above the $2,150 resistance, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even broke the $2,180 level before the bears appeared.The price traded close to the $2,200 zone before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,180 pivot zone. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and RSI dipped below 50. Finally, it tested the $2,150 zone.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
USD Strengthens Sharply after Inflation News
Yesterday's publication of producer price indices in the US was a surprise:
→ Core PPI: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.2%.
→ PPI: actual = 0.6%, expected = 0.3%.Higher producer prices indicate that high inflation may remain longer than expected. And this reduces the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy. Markets now price the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June at 60%, up from 74% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
The reaction to the news was that the dollar strengthened — there was a bearish day on the stock market, and currencies paired with the USD also fell in price.
Thus, the EUR/USD price decrease yesterday was about 0.55% per day.
On March 11, we wrote that the price of EUR/USD may fall to the lower border of the channel (shown in blue) from the 8-week peak (B). In fact, the price made a bearish breakout of this channel.
The EUR/USD chart today shows:
→ the ascending channel loses its relevance. Bears can form a downward channel in turn — the red lines on the chart indicate its approximate contours;
→ the price of EUR/USD dropped to support 1.087 (we wrote about it on March 11). Also in this area there is support from the Fibonacci level of 50% of the growth A→B.
→ level 1.092 may resist the bulls’ attempts to restore the EUR/USD price.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again raised its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024. While the agency's forecast pointed to the prospect of an oil surplus in 2023, its analysts now believe that the world will experience a shortage of oil in the second half of 2024.
Among the reasons for the shortage:
→ limitation of oil production by OPEC+ countries, it is 2 million barrels per day until the middle of the year. And it may be extended, as Bloomberg writes — the decision is scheduled for June 1;
→ changes in logistics routes due to Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea.Also, a bullish impulse for the price of WTI oil can be provided by the geopolitical situation, which remains tense.
The WTI oil chart shows that:
→ the price has exceeded the psychological level of USD 80 per barrel and is trying to gain a foothold there;
→ the price moves within the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ long upper shadows on the candles around USD 81 indicate seller activity. This is where the upper boundary of the channel lies, so there is reason to consider the level of USD 81 as current resistance.VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...
Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Have Become More Active Near the $70,000 Level
On February 26 (A), a strong bullish impulse started in the Bitcoin market. Its trajectory is visually described by a blue line. The price of bitcoins developed along it — this can be interpreted in such a way that market participants agreed that the value of the cryptocurrency was increasing.
If the price of Bitcoin deviated from the blue line, it was only for a short period of time. For example, to pierce the psychological level of USD 60,000 on March 5th.
However, the bullish momentum changed on March 15th, and this can be seen on the BTC/USD chart today:
→ the blue line began to work as resistance (shown by the first arrow);
→ the level of USD 70,000 also began to act as resistance (shown by the second arrow).BTC price briefly deviated from breaking through the psychological USD 65,000 level - but it appears that due to said resistances, bulls may now have trouble getting Bitcoin price back onto the upward trajectory shown by the blue line.
This could mean that the market's consensus on the value of BTC has changed - the chart suggests that a price of over USD 70k per Bitcoin may be considered overpriced (not surprising after A→B's rise of over 40% in 14 days).
On the other hand, demand remains high ahead of the halving (scheduled for April 19).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Tesla Stock Hits a Low Point as Musk Sues Openai - Is This Year a Total Write-Off?
Occasionally during the course of industrial progress, there is a maverick; a voice that is known for continual disruption and maintaining a high-profile position whilst engaging in such disruption.
The figure of this decade is Elon Musk, a self-starter whose bluster and direct prose cast him as one of the world's most outspoken individuals, as well as a business magnate who manages to influence the financial markets at the click of a button.
From generating unprecedented waves in the cryptocurrency markets in 2021 to causing the motor industry to break with its 130-year-old tradition of using internal combustion as a main method of motive power, Elon Musk's market-making abilities are in line with his disruptive commentary and social media activity.
This set of characteristics has led to volatile stock in the most famous company, Tesla, founded and led by Elon Musk. With regard to such volatility, the start of this week is no exception.
Tesla stock is currently nosediving and has reached a low point of $162.20 by March 14. At the close of the US trading session on Friday, March 15, Tesla stock had retrieved some of the losses and rested at the mid-$163 range, however, this represents a mere slowing down of the plunging of Tesla stock prices because ever since the beginning of this month, Tesla stock has been depreciating at a considerable rate.
Indeed, looking at the year so far as a whole, Tesla stock is down by 34% according to certain mainstream analyses, and when looking back to the beginning of that period, the stock has fallen tremendously. On December 27, Tesla stock was trading at $260.70.
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US Dollar Shows Record Weekly Gain Since Mid-January
The US dollar strengthened on Friday ahead of a series of highly anticipated central bank meetings next week, including the US Federal Reserve. The dollar rose 1.3% for the week, its biggest gain since mid-January, after a mixed batch of data showed the U.S. economy remained resilient. That suggests the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates high for longer or reduce its planned number of rate cuts this year. Data on Friday showed a strong US manufacturing sector, with output rebounding 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in the previous month. The University of Michigan's preliminary overall consumer sentiment index for the month was 76.5, down from a final reading of 76.9 in February. The Fed's measure of annual inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% in March. The five-year inflation forecast also remained stable at 2.9% for the fourth month in a row, according to the survey. The US Federal Reserve meeting will take place on Wednesday and analysts do not expect officials to make changes to monetary policy, but expect to receive forecasts for borrowing costs for the current year. The market continues to price in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, the first of which could come in June.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0885. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0899, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0963. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0840.Market activity remains subdued at the beginning of the week as traders are in no hurry to open positions in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers. Today the eurozone will publish February inflation statistics. The forecasts do not assume any changes in the consumer price index compared to previous data. On Thursday, March 21, trading participants will evaluate March data on business activity in the eurozone, as well as the ECB's monthly economic report, which may clarify the prospects for the regulator's monetary policy for the current year. Forecasts for business activity indices suggest an increase in the indicator from 46.5 points to 47.0 points in the manufacturing sector and from 50.2 points to 50.5 points in the services sector.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors. -
Bank of Japan Ends the Era of Negative Interest Rates
The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates for 17 years. For 8 years, it was in the negative zone.
But today there was a dramatic shift in monetary policy — the Bank of Japan announced a decision to increase the interest rate from -0.1% to 0.1%.
The central bank also abandoned yield curve control (YCC), a policy that had been in place since 2016 and capped long-term interest rates near zero.
Considering the scale of the decisions taken, the reaction of the yen exchange rate relative to other currencies turned out to be moderate. This is because the plans of the Bank of Japan have been discussed for a long time, including in official sources of information. Therefore, it is acceptable to assume that participants in the currency markets have already laid down the probability of today's event.
In fact, the yen has weakened as a result, but this may only be an initial reaction in which markets are reassessing the impact of the Bank of Japan's decision over a range of short-term to long-term horizons.
The USD/JPY chart today shows that:
→ the yen exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar;
→ the rate continues to develop in an ascending channel (marked in blue). At the same time, its median line was tested, which can serve as resistance from the point of view of technical analysis of USD/JPY.Let us mark on the chart the top of the year around the level of 150.888.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.
